Predictive modeling and advanced analytics
Discussion of technologies and vendors in the overlapping areas of predictive analytics, predictive modeling, data mining, machine learning, Monte Carlo analysis, and other “advanced” analytics.
Comments on SAS
A reporter interviewed me via IM about how CIOs should view SAS Institute and its products. Naturally, I have edited my comments (lightly) into a blog post. They turned out to be clustered into three groups, as follows:
- SAS faces a number of challenges, not unlike those faced by other high-priced legacy technology vendors.
- It is used by organizations who have large budgets to pay for the product and to pay people to be expert on the product’s intricacies.
- SAS has not integrated with scale-out analytic DBMS technologies as well or quickly as had been hoped, or as earlier marketing suggested was likely.
- SAS has not been strong in helping its users do agile predictive analytics.
- SAS’ strengths are concentrated in product breadth:
- Lots of statistical algorithms.
- Various vertical products that make the modeling techniques more accessible in specific application domains.
- Various approaches to engineering for scalability — no one of those has been a table-thumping success to date, but SAS has the resources to keep trying.
- Some level of integration with its own business intelligence and text analytics products.
- For any particular use case, the burden of proof is on SAS alternatives to show that they have enough pieces in the toolkit to meet the needs.
- SPSS (now owned by IBM) also has legacy issues.
- KXEN is focused on marketing use cases.
- Mahout has been one of the less successful Hadoop-related open source projects.
- R-based technology is still maturing.
- The modeling capabilities (as opposed to just scoring) bundled into RDBMS and well-parallelized tend to be pretty limited. Apparent exceptions tend to just be R repackaged.
| Categories: Analytic technologies, Data warehousing, Hadoop, IBM and DB2, KXEN, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, SAS Institute | 17 Comments |
Sumo Logic and UIs for text-oriented data
I talked with the Sumo Logic folks for an hour Thursday. Highlights included:
- Sumo Logic does SaaS (Software as a Service) log management.
- Sumo Logic is text indexing/Lucene-based. Thus, it is reasonable to think of Sumo Logic as “Splunk-like”. (However, Sumo Logic seems to have a stricter security/trouble-shooting orientation than Splunk, which is trying to branch out.)
- Sumo Logic has hacked Lucene for faster indexing, and says 10-30 second latencies are typical.
- Sumo Logic’s main differentiation is automated classification of events.
- There’s some kind of streaming engine in the mix, to update counters and drive alerts.
- Sumo Logic has around 30 “customers,” free (mainly) or paying (around 5) as the case may be.
- A truly typical Sumo Logic customer has single to low double digits of gigabytes of log data per day. However, Sumo Logic seems highly confident in its ability to handle a terabyte per customer per day, give or take a factor of 2.
- When I asked about the implications of shipping that much data to a remote data center, Sumo Logic observed that log data compresses really well.
- Sumo Logic recently raised a bunch of venture capital.
- Sumo Logic’s founders are out of ArcSight, a log management company HP paid a bunch of money for.
- Sumo Logic coined a marketing term “LogReduce”, but it has nothing to do with “MapReduce”. Sumo Logic seems to find this amusing.
What interests me about Sumo Logic is that automated classification story. I thought I heard Sumo Logic say: Read more
| Categories: Log analysis, Market share and customer counts, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, Software as a Service (SaaS), Text | 3 Comments |
Departmental analytics — best practices
I believe IT departments should support and encourage departmental analytics efforts, where “support” and “encourage” are not synonyms for “control”, “dominate”, “overwhelm”, or even “tame”. A big part of that is:
Let, and indeed help, departments have the data they want, when they want it, served with blazing performance.
Three things that absolutely should NOT be obstacles to these ends are:
- Corporate DBMS standards.
- Corporate data governance processes.
- The difficulties of ETL.
| Categories: Business intelligence, Data mart outsourcing, Data warehousing, EAI, EII, ETL, ELT, ETLT, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics | 4 Comments |
KXEN clarifies its story
I frequently badger my clients to tell their story in the form of a company blog, where they can say what needs saying without being restricted by the rules of other formats. KXEN actually listened, and put up a pair of CTO posts that make the company story a lot clearer.
Excerpts from the first post include (with minor edits for formatting, including added emphasis):
Back in 1995, Vladimir Vapnik … changed the machine learning game with his new ‘Statistical Learning Theory’: he provided the machine learning guys with a mathematical framework that allowed them finally to understand, at the core, why some techniques were working and some others were not. All of a sudden, a new realm of algorithms could be written that would use mathematical equations instead of engineering data science tricks (don’t get me wrong here: I am an engineer at heart and I know the value of “tricks,” but tricks cannot overcome the drawbacks of a bad mathematical framework). Here was a foundation for automated data mining techniques that would perform as well as the best data scientists deploying these tricks. Luck is not enough though; it was because we knew a lot about statistics and machine learning that we were able to decipher the nuggets of gold in Vladimir’s theory.
Agile predictive analytics – the heart of the matter
I’ve already suggested that several apparent issues in predictive analytic agility can be dismissed by straightforwardly applying best-of-breed technology, for example in analytic data management. At first blush, the same could be said about the actual analysis, which comprises:
- Data preparation, which is tedious unless you do a good job of automating it.
- Running the actual algorithms.
Numerous statistical software vendors (or open source projects) help you with the second part; some make strong claims in the first area as well (e.g., my clients at KXEN). Even so, large enterprises typically have statistical silos, commonly featuring expensive annual SAS licenses and seemingly slow-moving SAS programmers.
As I see it, the predictive analytics workflow goes something like this Read more
| Categories: Investment research and trading, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, SAS Institute, Telecommunications, Web analytics | 19 Comments |
Agile predictive analytics — the “easy” parts
I’m hearing a lot these days about agile predictive analytics, albeit rarely in those exact terms. The general idea is unassailable, in that it boils down to using data as quickly as reasonably possible. But discussing particulars is hard, for several reasons:
- Pundits tend to sketch castles in the air.
- Vendors tend to confuse part of the story — generally the part they happen to offer
— with the whole. - Different use cases give rise to different kinds of issues.
At least three of the generic arguments for agility apply to predictive analytics:
- Doing the correct thing soon is usually better than doing the same correct thing later.
- If it doesn’t take much time to do something, hopefully it doesn’t take that much expense (labor and so on) either.
- It’s hard to get new stuff completely right on the first try. Often, the best strategy is to come close fast, then fix what’s still not ideal.
But the reasons to want agile predictive analytics don’t stop there.
| Categories: EAI, EII, ETL, ELT, ETLT, Investment research and trading, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics | 13 Comments |
Clarifying SAND’s customer metrics, positioning and technical story
Talking with my clients at SAND can be confusing. That said:
- I need to revise my figures for SAND’s customer count way downward.
- SAND finally has a reasonably clear positioning.
- SAND’s product actually seems to have a lot of features.
A few months ago, I wrote:
SAND Technology reported >600 total customers, including >100 direct.
Upon talking with the company, I need to revise that figure downward, from > 600 to 15.
Terminology: Operational analytics
It’s time for me to try to define “operational analytics”. Clues pointing me to that need include:
- The term investigative analytics has gotten considerable traction.
- I generally contrast “investigative” and “operational” analytics, for example in the last line of the post linked above, or in my recent introduction to Odiago WibiData.
- It’s clear that I’m conflating several different things in the term. (See for example the operational analytics sections of my posts on eight kinds of analytic database or definitional challenges for 2011.)
- I’m pretty negative about the utility of alternate terms such as “operational BI”.
But as in all definitional discussions, please remember that nothing concise is ever precise.
Activities I want to call “operational analytics” include but are not limited to (and some of these overlap): Read more
| Categories: Analytic technologies, Business intelligence, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics | 5 Comments |
The cool aspects of Odiago WibiData
Christophe Bisciglia and Aaron Kimball have a new company.
- It’s called Odiago, and is one of my gratifyingly more numerous tiny clients.
- Odiago’s product line is called WibiData, after the justly popular We Be Sushi restaurants.
- We’ve agreed on a split exclusive de-stealthing launch. You can read about the company/founder/investor stuff on TechCrunch. But this is the place for — well, for the tech crunch.
WibiData is designed for management of, investigative analytics on, and operational analytics on consumer internet data, the main examples of which are web site traffic and personalization and their analogues for games and/or mobile devices. The core WibiData technology, built on HBase and Hadoop,* is a data management and analytic execution layer. That’s where the secret sauce resides. Also included are:
- REST APIs for interactive access.
- Import/export tools, including JDBC access.
- Management tools.
- Analytic libraries — data mining, predictive analytics, machine learning, and so on.
The whole thing is in beta, with about three (paying) beta customers.
*And Avro and so on.
The core ideas of WibiData include:
- ALL data pertaining to a single user (or mobile device) is kept in a single, possibly very long, HBase row.
- There are two primary operators in WibiData, Produce and Gather.
- Produce operates on single rows. It can operate on one row at HBase speed (milliseconds) if you need to inform an interactive user response. Or it can operate on the whole database in batch via Hadoop MapReduce.
- It is reasonable to think of Produce as mainly doing two things. One is the aforementioned serving of data out of WibiData into interactive applications. The other is scoring, classifying, recommending, etc. on individual users (i.e. rows), in line with an analytic model.
- Gather typically operates on all your rows at once, and emits suitable input for a MapReduce Reduce step. It is reasonable to think of Gather as being a key cog in the training of analytic models.
- HBase schema management is done at the WibiData system level, not directly in applications. There’s a WibiData HBase data dictionary, powered by a set of system tables, that specifies cell data types/record types and, in effect, primitive schemas.
| Categories: Data models and architecture, HBase, Hadoop, NoSQL, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, Web analytics, WibiData | 12 Comments |
Commercial software for academic use
As Jacek Becla explained:
- Academic scientists like their software to be open source, for reasons that include both free-like-speech and free-like-beer.
- What’s more, they like their software to be dead-simple to administer and use, since they often lack the dedicated human resources for anything else.
Even so, I think that academic researchers, in the natural and social sciences alike, commonly overlook the wealth of commercial software that could help them in their efforts.
I further think that the commercial software industry could do a better job of exposing its work to academics, where by “expose” I mean:
- Give your stuff to academics for free.
- Call their attention to your free offering.
Reasons to do so include:
- Public benefit. Scientific research is important.
- Training future customers. There’s huge academic/commercial crossover, especially as students join the for-profit workforce.