Predictive modeling and advanced analytics
Discussion of technologies and vendors in the overlapping areas of predictive analytics, predictive modeling, data mining, machine learning, Monte Carlo analysis, and other “advanced” analytics.
Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi checked in because he disagreed with part of my recent post about Databricks. Ali’s take on Databricks’ position in the Spark world includes:
- What I called Databricks’ “secondary business” of “licensing stuff to Spark distributors” was really about second/third tier support. Fair enough. But distributors of stacks including Spark, for whatever combination of on-premise and cloud as the case may be, may in many cases be viewed as competitors to Databricks cloud-only service. So why should Databricks help them?
- Databricks’ investment in Spark Summit and similar evangelism is larger than I realized.
- Ali suggests that the fraction of Databricks’ engineering devoted to open source Spark is greater than I understood during my recent visit.
Ali also walked me through customer use cases and adoption in wonderful detail. In general:
- A large majority of Databricks customers have machine learning use cases.
- Predicting and preventing user/customer churn is a huge issue across multiple market sectors.
The story on those sectors, per Ali, is: Read more
During my recent visit to Databricks, I of course talked a lot about technology — largely with Reynold Xin, but a bit with Ion Stoica as well. Spark 2.0 is just coming out now, and of course has a lot of enhancements. At a high level:
- Using the new terminology, Spark originally assumed users had data engineering skills, but Spark 2.0 is designed to be friendly to data scientists.
- A lot of this is via a focus on simplified APIs, based on
- Unlike similarly named APIs in R and Python, Spark DataFrames work with nested data.
- Machine learning and Spark Streaming both work with Spark DataFrames.
- There are lots of performance improvements as well, some substantial. Spark is still young enough that Bottleneck Whack-A-Mole yields huge benefits, especially in the SparkSQL area.
- SQL coverage is of course improved. For example, SparkSQL can now perform all TPC-S queries.
The majority of Databricks’ development efforts, however, are specific to its cloud service, rather than being donated to Apache for the Spark project. Some of the details are NDA, but it seems fair to mention at least:
- Databricks’ notebooks feature for organizing and launching machine learning processes and so on is a biggie. Jupyter is an open source analog.
- Databricks has been working on security, and even on the associated certifications.
Two of the technical initiatives Reynold told me about seemed particularly cool. Read more
|Categories: Benchmarks and POCs, Cloud computing, Databricks, Spark and BDAS, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, Streaming and complex event processing (CEP)||2 Comments|
I visited Databricks in early July to chat with Ion Stoica and Reynold Xin. Spark also comes up in a large fraction of the conversations I have. So let’s do some catch-up on Databricks and Spark. In a nutshell:
- Spark is indeed the replacement for Hadoop MapReduce.
- Spark is becoming the default platform for machine learning.
- SparkSQL (nee’ Shark) is puttering along predictably.
- Databricks reports good success in its core business of cloud-based machine learning support.
- Spark Streaming has strong adoption, but its position is at risk.
- Databricks, the original authority on Spark, is not keeping a tight grip on that role.
I shall explain below. I also am posting separately about Spark evolution, especially Spark 2.0. I’ll also talk a bit in that post about Databricks’ proprietary/closed-source technology.
Spark is the replacement for Hadoop MapReduce.
This point is so obvious that I don’t know what to say in its support. The trend is happening, as originally decreed by Cloudera (and me), among others. People are rightly fed up with the limitations of MapReduce, and — niches perhaps aside — there are no serious alternatives other than Spark.
The greatest use for Spark seems to be the same as the canonical first use for MapReduce: data transformation. Also in line with the Spark/MapReduce analogy: Read more
|Categories: Cloudera, Databricks, Spark and BDAS, EAI, EII, ETL, ELT, ETLT, Hadoop, MapReduce, Market share and customer counts, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics||5 Comments|
I learned some newish terms on my recent trip. They’re meant to solve the problem that “data scientists” used to be folks with remarkably broad skill sets, few of whom actually existed in ideal form. So instead now it is increasingly said that:
- “Data engineers” can code, run clusters, and so on, in support of what’s always been called “data science”. Their knowledge of the math of machine learning/predictive modeling and so on may, however, be limited.
- “Data scientists” can write and run scripts on single nodes; anything more on the engineering side might strain them. But they have no-apologies skills in the areas of modeling/machine learning.
- I raised concerns about the “data science” term 4 years ago.
- I spent three weeks in California on a hybrid personal/business trip. I had a bunch of meetings, but not three weeks’ worth.
- The timing was awkward for most companies I wanted to see. No blame accrues to those who didn’t make themselves available.
- I came back with a nasty cough. Follow-up phone calls aren’t an option until next week.
- I’m impatient to start writing. Hence tonight’s posts. But it’s difficult for a man and his cough to be productive at the same time.
A running list of recent posts is:
- As a companion to this post, I’m publishing a very long one on vendor lock-in.
- Spark and Databricks are both prospering, and of course enhancing their technology as well.
- Ditto DataStax.
- Flink is interesting as the streaming technology it’s now positioned to be, rather than the overall Spark alternative it used to be positioned as but which the world didn’t need.
Subjects I’d like to add to that list include:
- MemSQL, Zoomdata, and Neo Technology (also prospering).
- Cloudera (multiple topics, as usual).
- Analytic SQL engines (“traditional” analytic RDBMS aren’t doing well).
- Microsoft’s reinvention (it feels real).
- Metadata (it’s ever more of a thing).
- Machine learning (it’s going to be a big portion of my research going forward).
- Transitions to the cloud — this subject affects almost everything else.
As I observed yet again last week, much of analytics is concerned with anomaly detection, analysis and response. I don’t think anybody understands the full consequences of that fact,* but let’s start with some basics.
An anomaly, for our purposes, is a data point or more likely a data aggregate that is notably different from the trend or norm. If I may oversimplify, there are three kinds of anomalies:
- Important signals. Something is going on, and it matters. Somebody — or perhaps just an automated system — needs to know about it. Time may be of the essence.
- Unimportant signals. Something is going on, but so what?
- Pure noise. Even a fair coin flip can have long streaks of coming up “heads”.
Two major considerations are:
- Whether the recipient of a signal can do something valuable with the information.
- How “costly” it is for the recipient to receive an unimportant signal or other false positive.
What I mean by the latter point is:
- Something that sets a cell phone buzzing had better be important, to the phone’s owner personally.
- But it may be OK if something unimportant changes one small part of a busy screen display.
Anyhow, the Holy Grail* of anomaly management is a system that sends the right alerts to the right people, and never sends them wrong ones. And the quest seems about as hard as that for the Holy Grail, although this one uses more venture capital and fewer horses. Read more
Five years ago, in a taxonomy of analytic business benefits, I wrote:
A large fraction of all analytic efforts ultimately serve one or more of three purposes:
- Problem and anomaly detection and diagnosis
- Planning and optimization
That continues to be true today. Now let’s add a bit of spin.
1. A large fraction of analytics is adversarial. In particular: Read more
|Categories: Business intelligence, Investment research and trading, Log analysis, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, RDF and graphs, Surveillance and privacy, Web analytics||3 Comments|
Whenever somebody asks for my help on application technology strategy, I start by trying to ascertain three things. The absolute first is actually a prerequisite to almost any kind of useful conversation, which is to ascertain in general terms what the hell it is that we are talking about.
My second goal is to ascertain technology constraints. Three common types are:
- Compatible with legacy systems and/or enterprise standards.
- Cheap, free and/or open source.
- Proven, vetted by sufficiently many references, and/or generally having an “enterprise-y” reputation.
That’s often a short and straightforward discussion, except in those awkward situations when all three of my bullet points above are applicable at once.
The third item is usually more interesting. I try to figure out what is to be accomplished. That’s usually not a simple matter, because the initial list of goals and requirements is almost never accurate. It’s actually more common that I have to tell somebody to be more ambitious than that I need to rein them in.
Commonly overlooked needs include:
- If you want to sell something and have happy users, you need a good UI.
- You will also soon need tools and a UI for administration.
- Customers demand low-latency/fresh data. Your explanation of why they don’t really need it doesn’t contradict the fact that they want it.
- Providing data access and saying “You can hook up any BI tool you want and build charts” is not generally regarded as offering a good UI.
- When “adding analytics” to something previously focused on short-request processing, it is common to underestimate the variety of things users will soon want to do. (One common reason for this under-estimate is that after years of being told it can’t be done, they’ve learned not to ask.)
And if you take one thing away from this post, then take this:
- If you “know” exactly which features are or aren’t helpful to users, …
- .. and if you supply only what you “know” they should use, …
- … then you will discover that what you “knew” wasn’t really accurate.
I guarantee it.
|Categories: Business intelligence, Buying processes, EAI, EII, ETL, ELT, ETLT, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics||2 Comments|
Cloudera released Version 2 of Cloudera Director, which is a companion product to Cloudera Manager focused specifically on the cloud. This led to a discussion about — you guessed it! — Cloudera and the cloud.
Making Cloudera run in the cloud has three major aspects:
- Cloudera’s usual software, ported to run on the cloud platform(s).
- Cloudera Director, which for example launches cloud instances.
- Points of integration, e.g. taking information about security-oriented roles from the platform and feeding then to the role-based security that is specific to Cloudera Enterprise.
Features new in this week’s release of Cloudera Director include:
- An API for job submission.
- Support for spot and preemptable instances.
- High availability.
- Some cluster repair.
- Some cluster cloning.
I.e., we’re talking about some pretty basic/checklist kinds of things. Cloudera Director is evidently working for Amazon AWS and Google GCP, and planned for Windows Azure, VMware and OpenStack.
As for porting, let me start by noting: Read more
Mike Stonebraker and Larry Ellison have numerous things in common. If nothing else:
- They’re both titanic figures in the database industry.
- They both gave me testimonials on the home page of my business website.
- They both have been known to use the present tense when the future tense would be more accurate.
I mention the latter because there’s a new edition of Readings in Database Systems, aka the Red Book, available online, courtesy of Mike, Joe Hellerstein and Peter Bailis. Besides the recommended-reading academic papers themselves, there are 12 survey articles by the editors, and an occasional response where, for example, editors disagree. Whether or not one chooses to tackle the papers themselves — and I in fact have not dived into them — the commentary is of great interest.
But I would not take every word as the gospel truth, especially when academics describe what they see as commercial market realities. In particular, as per my quip in the first paragraph, the data warehouse market has not yet gone to the extremes that Mike suggests,* if indeed it ever will. And while Joe is close to correct when he says that the company Essbase was acquired by Oracle, what actually happened is that Arbor Software, which made Essbase, merged with Hyperion Software, and the latter was eventually indeed bought by the giant of Redwood Shores.**
*When it comes to data warehouse market assessment, Mike seems to often be ahead of the trend.
**Let me interrupt my tweaking of very smart people to confess that my own commentary on the Oracle/Hyperion deal was not, in retrospect, especially prescient.
Mike pretty much opened the discussion with a blistering attack against hierarchical data models such as JSON or XML. To a first approximation, his views might be summarized as: Read more