Predictive modeling and advanced analytics

Discussion of technologies and vendors in the overlapping areas of predictive analytics, predictive modeling, data mining, machine learning, Monte Carlo analysis, and other “advanced” analytics.

October 18, 2013

Entity-centric event series analytics

Much of modern analytic technology deals with what might be called an entity-centric sequence of events. For example:

Analytic questions are asked along the lines “Which sequences of events are most productive in terms of leading to the events we really desire?”, such as product sales. Another major area is sessionization, along with data preparation tasks that boil down to arranging data into meaningful event sequences in the first place.

A number of my clients are focused on such scenarios, including WibiData, Teradata Aster (e.g. via nPath), Platfora (in the imminent Platfora 3), and others. And so I get involved in naming exercises. The term entity-centric came along a while ago, because “user-centric” is too limiting. (E.g., the data may not be about a person, but rather specifically about the actions taken on her mobile device.) Now I’m adding the term event series to cover the whole scenario, rather than the “event sequence(s)” I might appear to have been hinting at above.

I decided on “event series” earlier this week, after noting that:  Read more

October 10, 2013

Aster 6, graph analytics, and BSP

Teradata Aster 6 has been preannounced (beta in Q4, general release in Q1 2014). The general architectural idea is:

There’s much more, of course, but those are the essential pieces.

Just to be clear: Teradata Aster 6, aka the Teradata Aster Discovery Platform, includes HDFS compatibility, native MapReduce and ways of invoking Hadoop MapReduce on non-Aster nodes or clusters — but even so, you can’t run Hadoop MapReduce within Aster over Aster’s version of HDFS.

The most dramatic immediate additions are in the graph analytics area.* The new SQL-Graph is supported by something called BSP (Bulk Synchronous Parallel). I’ll start by observing (and some of this is confusing):

Use cases suggested are a lot of marketing, plus anti-fraud.

*Pay no attention to Aster’s previous claims to do a good job on graph — and not only via nPath — in SQL-MR.

So far as I can infer from examples I’ve seen, the semantics of Teradata Aster SQL-Graph start:

Within those functions, the core idea is:  Read more

October 10, 2013

Libraries in Teradata Aster

I recently wrote (emphasis added):

My clients at Teradata Aster probably see things differently, but I don’t think their library of pre-built analytic packages has been a big success. The same goes for other analytic platform vendors who have done similar (generally lesser) things. I believe that this is because such limited libraries don’t do enough of what users want.

The bolded part has been, shall we say, confirmed. As Randy Lea tells it, Teradata Aster sales qualification includes the determination that at least one SQL-MR operator — be relevant to the use case. (“Operator” seems to be the word now, rather than “function”.) Randy agreed that some users prefer hand-coding, but believes a large majority would like to push work to data analysts/business analysts who might have strong SQL skills, but be less adept at general mathematical programming.

This phrasing will all be less accurate after the release of Aster 6, which extends Aster’s capabilities beyond the trinity of SQL, the SQL-MR library, and Aster-supported hand-coding.

Randy also said:

And Randy seemed to agree when I put words in his mouth to the effect that the prebuilt operators save users months of development time.

Meanwhile, Teradata Aster has started a whole new library for relationship analytics.

October 6, 2013

What matters in investigative analytics?

In a general pontification on positioning, I wrote:

every product in a category is positioned along the same set of attributes,

and went on to suggest that summary attributes were more important than picky detailed ones. So how does that play out for investigative analytics?

First, summary attributes that matter for almost any kind of enterprise software include:

*I picked up that phrase when — abbreviated as RAS — it was used to characterize the emphasis for Oracle 8. I like it better than a general and ambiguous concept of “enterprise-ready”.

The reason I’m writing this post, however, is to call out two summary attributes of special importance in investigative analytics — which regrettably which often conflict with each other — namely:

Much of what I work on boils down to those two subjects. For example: Read more

September 20, 2013

Trends in predictive modeling

I talked with Teradata about a bunch of stuff yesterday, including this week’s announcements in in-database predictive modeling. The specific news was about partnerships with Fuzzy Logix and Revolution Analytics. But what I found more interesting was the surrounding discussion. In a nutshell:

This is the strongest statement of perceived demand for in-database modeling I’ve heard. (Compare Point #3 of my July predictive modeling post.) And fits with what I’ve been hearing about R.

Read more

September 11, 2013

SAP is buying KXEN

First, some quick history.

However, I don’t want to give the impression that KXEN is the second coming of Crystal Reports. Most of what I heard about KXEN’s partnership chops, after Roman’s original heads-up, came from Teradata. Even KXEN itself didn’t seem to see that as a major part of their strategy.

And by the way, KXEN is yet another example of my observation that fancy math rarely drives great enterprise software success.

KXEN’s most recent strategies are perhaps best described by contrasting it to the vastly larger SAS.  Read more

August 25, 2013

Cloudera Hadoop strategy and usage notes

When we scheduled a call to talk about Sentry, Cloudera’s Charles Zedlewski and I found time to discuss other stuff as well. One interesting part of our discussion was around the processing “frameworks” Cloudera sees as most important.

HBase was artificially omitted from this “frameworks” discussion because Cloudera sees it as a little bit more of a “storage” system than a processing one.

Another good subject was offloading work to Hadoop, in a couple different senses of “offload”: Read more

August 19, 2013

Why privacy laws should be based on data use, not data possession

For years I’ve argued three points about privacy intrusions and surveillance:

Since that last point is still very much a minority viewpoint,** I’ll argue it one more time below.  Read more

August 14, 2013

The two sides of BI

As is the case for most important categories of technology, discussions of BI can get confused. I’ve remarked in the past that there are numerous kinds of BI, and that the very origin of the term “business intelligence” can’t even be pinned down to the nearest century. But the most fundamental confusion of all is that business intelligence technology really is two different things, which in simplest terms may be categorized as user interface (UI) and platform* technology. And so:

*I wanted to say “server” or “server-side” instead of “platform”, as I dislike the latter word. But it’s too inaccurate, for example in the case of the original Cognos PowerPlay, and also in various thin-client scenarios.

Key aspects of BI platform technology can include:

Read more

July 31, 2013

“Disruption” in the software industry

I lampoon the word “disruptive” for being badly overused. On the other hand, I often refer to the concept myself. Perhaps I should clarify. :)

You probably know that the modern concept of disruption comes from Clayton Christensen, specifically in The Innovator’s Dilemma and its sequel, The Innovator’s Solution. The basic ideas are:

In response (this is the Innovator’s Solution part):

But not all cleverness is “disruption”.

Here are some of the examples that make me think of the whole subject. Read more

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