Predictive modeling and advanced analytics
Discussion of technologies and vendors in the overlapping areas of predictive analytics, predictive modeling, data mining, machine learning, Monte Carlo analysis, and other “advanced” analytics.
- I spent three weeks in California on a hybrid personal/business trip. I had a bunch of meetings, but not three weeks’ worth.
- The timing was awkward for most companies I wanted to see. No blame accrues to those who didn’t make themselves available.
- I came back with a nasty cough. Follow-up phone calls aren’t an option until next week.
- I’m impatient to start writing. Hence tonight’s posts. But it’s difficult for a man and his cough to be productive at the same time.
A running list of recent posts is:
- As a companion to this post, I’m publishing a very long one on vendor lock-in.
- Spark and Databricks are both prospering, and of course enhancing their technology as well.
- Ditto DataStax.
- Flink is interesting as the streaming technology it’s now positioned to be, rather than the overall Spark alternative it used to be positioned as but which the world didn’t need.
Subjects I’d like to add to that list include:
- MemSQL, Zoomdata, and Neo Technology (also prospering).
- Cloudera (multiple topics, as usual).
- Analytic SQL engines (“traditional” analytic RDBMS aren’t doing well).
- Microsoft’s reinvention (it feels real).
- Metadata (it’s ever more of a thing).
- Machine learning (it’s going to be a big portion of my research going forward).
- Transitions to the cloud — this subject affects almost everything else.
As I observed yet again last week, much of analytics is concerned with anomaly detection, analysis and response. I don’t think anybody understands the full consequences of that fact,* but let’s start with some basics.
An anomaly, for our purposes, is a data point or more likely a data aggregate that is notably different from the trend or norm. If I may oversimplify, there are three kinds of anomalies:
- Important signals. Something is going on, and it matters. Somebody — or perhaps just an automated system — needs to know about it. Time may be of the essence.
- Unimportant signals. Something is going on, but so what?
- Pure noise. Even a fair coin flip can have long streaks of coming up “heads”.
Two major considerations are:
- Whether the recipient of a signal can do something valuable with the information.
- How “costly” it is for the recipient to receive an unimportant signal or other false positive.
What I mean by the latter point is:
- Something that sets a cell phone buzzing had better be important, to the phone’s owner personally.
- But it may be OK if something unimportant changes one small part of a busy screen display.
Anyhow, the Holy Grail* of anomaly management is a system that sends the right alerts to the right people, and never sends them wrong ones. And the quest seems about as hard as that for the Holy Grail, although this one uses more venture capital and fewer horses. Read more
Five years ago, in a taxonomy of analytic business benefits, I wrote:
A large fraction of all analytic efforts ultimately serve one or more of three purposes:
- Problem and anomaly detection and diagnosis
- Planning and optimization
That continues to be true today. Now let’s add a bit of spin.
1. A large fraction of analytics is adversarial. In particular: Read more
|Categories: Business intelligence, Investment research and trading, Log analysis, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, RDF and graphs, Surveillance and privacy, Web analytics||3 Comments|
Whenever somebody asks for my help on application technology strategy, I start by trying to ascertain three things. The absolute first is actually a prerequisite to almost any kind of useful conversation, which is to ascertain in general terms what the hell it is that we are talking about.
My second goal is to ascertain technology constraints. Three common types are:
- Compatible with legacy systems and/or enterprise standards.
- Cheap, free and/or open source.
- Proven, vetted by sufficiently many references, and/or generally having an “enterprise-y” reputation.
That’s often a short and straightforward discussion, except in those awkward situations when all three of my bullet points above are applicable at once.
The third item is usually more interesting. I try to figure out what is to be accomplished. That’s usually not a simple matter, because the initial list of goals and requirements is almost never accurate. It’s actually more common that I have to tell somebody to be more ambitious than that I need to rein them in.
Commonly overlooked needs include:
- If you want to sell something and have happy users, you need a good UI.
- You will also soon need tools and a UI for administration.
- Customers demand low-latency/fresh data. Your explanation of why they don’t really need it doesn’t contradict the fact that they want it.
- Providing data access and saying “You can hook up any BI tool you want and build charts” is not generally regarded as offering a good UI.
- When “adding analytics” to something previously focused on short-request processing, it is common to underestimate the variety of things users will soon want to do. (One common reason for this under-estimate is that after years of being told it can’t be done, they’ve learned not to ask.)
And if you take one thing away from this post, then take this:
- If you “know” exactly which features are or aren’t helpful to users, …
- .. and if you supply only what you “know” they should use, …
- … then you will discover that what you “knew” wasn’t really accurate.
I guarantee it.
|Categories: Business intelligence, Buying processes, EAI, EII, ETL, ELT, ETLT, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics||2 Comments|
Cloudera released Version 2 of Cloudera Director, which is a companion product to Cloudera Manager focused specifically on the cloud. This led to a discussion about — you guessed it! — Cloudera and the cloud.
Making Cloudera run in the cloud has three major aspects:
- Cloudera’s usual software, ported to run on the cloud platform(s).
- Cloudera Director, which for example launches cloud instances.
- Points of integration, e.g. taking information about security-oriented roles from the platform and feeding then to the role-based security that is specific to Cloudera Enterprise.
Features new in this week’s release of Cloudera Director include:
- An API for job submission.
- Support for spot and preemptable instances.
- High availability.
- Some cluster repair.
- Some cluster cloning.
I.e., we’re talking about some pretty basic/checklist kinds of things. Cloudera Director is evidently working for Amazon AWS and Google GCP, and planned for Windows Azure, VMware and OpenStack.
As for porting, let me start by noting: Read more
Mike Stonebraker and Larry Ellison have numerous things in common. If nothing else:
- They’re both titanic figures in the database industry.
- They both gave me testimonials on the home page of my business website.
- They both have been known to use the present tense when the future tense would be more accurate.
I mention the latter because there’s a new edition of Readings in Database Systems, aka the Red Book, available online, courtesy of Mike, Joe Hellerstein and Peter Bailis. Besides the recommended-reading academic papers themselves, there are 12 survey articles by the editors, and an occasional response where, for example, editors disagree. Whether or not one chooses to tackle the papers themselves — and I in fact have not dived into them — the commentary is of great interest.
But I would not take every word as the gospel truth, especially when academics describe what they see as commercial market realities. In particular, as per my quip in the first paragraph, the data warehouse market has not yet gone to the extremes that Mike suggests,* if indeed it ever will. And while Joe is close to correct when he says that the company Essbase was acquired by Oracle, what actually happened is that Arbor Software, which made Essbase, merged with Hyperion Software, and the latter was eventually indeed bought by the giant of Redwood Shores.**
*When it comes to data warehouse market assessment, Mike seems to often be ahead of the trend.
**Let me interrupt my tweaking of very smart people to confess that my own commentary on the Oracle/Hyperion deal was not, in retrospect, especially prescient.
Mike pretty much opened the discussion with a blistering attack against hierarchical data models such as JSON or XML. To a first approximation, his views might be summarized as: Read more
This is part of a four post series spanning two blogs.
- One post gives a general historical overview of the artificial intelligence business.
- One post specifically covers the history of expert systems.
- One post gives a general present-day overview of the artificial intelligence business.
- One post (this one) explores the close connection between machine learning and (the rest of) AI.
1. I think the technical essence of AI is usually:
- Inputs come in.
- Decisions or actions come out.
- More precisely — inputs come in, something intermediate is calculated, and the intermediate result is mapped to a decision or action.
- The intermediate results are commonly either numerical (a scalar or perhaps a vector of scalars) or a classification/partition into finitely many possible intermediate outputs.
Of course, a lot of non-AI software can be described the same way.
To check my claim, please consider:
- It fits rules engines/expert systems so simply it’s barely worth saying.
- It fits any kind of natural language processing; the intermediate results might be words or phrases or concepts or whatever.
- It fits machine vision beautifully.
To see why it’s true from a bottom-up standpoint, please consider the next two points.
2. It is my opinion that most things called “intelligence” — natural and artificial alike — have a great deal to do with pattern recognition and response. Examples of what I mean include: Read more
|Categories: Facebook, Google, IBM and DB2, Microsoft and SQL*Server, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics||6 Comments|
I talked with Cloudera shortly ahead of today’s announcement of Cloudera 5.5. Much of what we talked about had something or other to do with SQL data management. Highlights include:
- Impala and Kudu are being donated to Apache. This actually was already announced Tuesday. (Due to Apache’s rules, if I had any discussion with Cloudera speculating on the likelihood of Apache accepting the donations, I would not be free to relay it.)
- Cloudera is introducing SQL extensions so that Impala can query nested data structures. More on that below.
- The basic idea for the nested datatype support is that there are SQL extensions with a “dot” notation to let you get at the specific columns you need.
- From a feature standpoint, we’re definitely still in the early days.
- When I asked about indexes on these quasi-columns, I gathered that they’re not present in beta but are hoped for by the time of general availability.
- Basic data skipping, also absent in beta, seems to be more confidently expected in GA.
- This is for Parquet first, Avro next, and presumably eventually native JSON as well.
- This is said to be Dremel-like, at least in the case of Parquet. I must confess that I’m not familiar enough with Apache Drill to compare the two efforts.
- Cloudera is increasing its coverage of Spark in several ways.
- Cloudera is adding support for MLlib.
- Cloudera is adding support for SparkSQL. More on that below.
- Cloudera is adding support for Spark going against S3. The short answer to “How is this different from the Databricks service?” is:
- More “platform” stuff from the Hadoop stack (e.g. for data ingest).
- Less in the way of specific Spark usability stuff.
- Cloudera is putting into beta what it got in the Xplain.io acquisition, which it unfortunately is naming Cloudera Navigator Optimizer. More on that in a separate post.
- Impala and Hive are getting column-level security via Apache Sentry.
- There are other security enhancements.
- Some policy-based information lifecycle management is being added as well.
While I had Cloudera on the phone, I asked a few questions about Impala adoption, specifically focused on concurrency. There was mention of: Read more
|Categories: Benchmarks and POCs, Cloudera, Data warehousing, Databricks, Spark and BDAS, Market share and customer counts, Petabyte-scale data management, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, SQL/Hadoop integration||4 Comments|
In the previous post I broke product differentiation into 6-8 overlapping categories, which may be abbreviated as:
- (Other) trustworthiness
- User experience
and sometimes also issues in adoption and administration.
Now let’s use this framework to examine two market categories I cover — data management and, in separate post, business intelligence.
Applying this taxonomy to data management:
|Categories: Buying processes, Clustering, Data warehousing, Database diversity, Microsoft and SQL*Server, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, Pricing||2 Comments|
Obviously, a large fraction of what I write about involves technical differentiation. So let’s try for a framework where differentiation claims can be placed in context. This post will get through the generalities. The sequels will apply them to specific cases.
Many buying and design considerations for IT fall into six interrelated areas: Read more