In one of my favorite posts, namely When I am a VC Overlord, I wrote:
I will not fund any entrepreneur who mentions “market projections” in other than ironic terms. Nobody who talks of market projections with a straight face should be trusted.
Even so, I got talked today into putting on the record a prediction that machine-generated data will grow at more than 40% for a while.
My reasons for this opinion are little more than:
- Moore’s Law suggests that the same expenditure will buy 40% or so more machine-generated data each year.
- Budgets spent on producing machine-generated data seem to be going up.
I was referring to the creation of such data, but the growth rates of new creation and of persistent storage are likely, at least at this back-of-the-envelope level, to be similar.
Anecdotal evidence actually suggests 50-60%+ growth rates, so >40% seemed like a responsible claim.
- My recent survey of machine-generated data topics started with a list of many different kinds of the stuff.
- My 2009 post on data warehouse volume growth makes similar points, and notes that high growth rates mean we likely can never afford to keep all machine-generated data permanently.
- My 2011 claim that traditional databases will migrate into RAM is sort of this argument’s flipside.
What will soft, mobile robots be able to do that previous generations cannot? A lot. But I’m particularly intrigued by two large categories:
- Inspection, maintenance and repair.
- Health care/family care assistance.
There are still many things that are hard for humans to keep in good working order, including:
- Power lines.
- Anything that’s underwater (cables, drilling platforms, etc.)
- Pipelines, ducts, and water mains (especially from the inside).
- Any kind of geographically remote power station or other installation.
Sometimes the issue is (hopefully minor) repairs. Sometimes it’s cleaning or lubrication. In some cases one might want to upgrade a structure with fixed sensors, and the “repair” is mainly putting those sensors in place. In all these cases, it seems that soft robots could eventually offer a solution. Further examples, I’m sure, could be found in factories, mines, or farms.
Of course, if there’s a maintenance/repair need, inspection is at least part of the challenge; in some cases it’s almost the whole thing. And so this technology will help lead us toward the point that substantially all major objects will be associated with consistent flows of data. Opportunities for data analysis will abound.
There may be no other subject on which I’m so potentially biased as robotics, given that:
- I don’t spend a lot of time on the area, but …
- … one of the better robotics engineers in the world (Kevin Albert) just happens to be in my family …
- … and thus he’s overwhelmingly my main source on the general subject of robots.
Still, I’m solely responsible for my own posts and opinions, while Kevin is busy running his startup (Pneubotics) and raising my grandson. And by the way — I’ve been watching the robotics industry slightly longer than Kevin has been alive.
My overview messages about all this are:
- Historically, robots have been very limited in their scope of motion and action. Indeed, most successful robots to date have been immobile, metallic programmable machines, serving on classic assembly lines.
- Next-generation robots should and will be much more able to safely and effectively navigate through and work within general human-centric environments.
- This will affect a variety of application areas in ways that readers of this blog may care about.
I hoped to write a reasonable overview of current- to medium-term future IT innovation. Yeah, right. But if we abandon any hope that this post could be comprehensive, I can at least say:
1. Back in 2011, I ranted against the term Big Data, but expressed more fondness for the V words — Volume, Velocity, Variety and Variability. That said, when it comes to data management and movement, solutions to the V problems have generally been sketched out.
- Volume has been solved. There are Hadoop installations with 100s of petabytes of data, analytic RDBMS with 10s of petabytes, general-purpose Exadata sites with petabytes, and 10s/100s of petabytes of analytic Accumulo at the NSA. Further examples abound.
- Velocity is being solved. My recent post on Hadoop-based streaming suggests how. In other use cases, velocity is addressed via memory-centric RDBMS.
- Variety and Variability have been solved. MongoDB, Cassandra and perhaps others are strong NoSQL choices. Schema-on-need is in earlier days, but may help too.
2. Even so, there’s much room for innovation around data movement and management. I’d start with:
- Product maturity is a huge issue for all the above, and will remain one for years.
- Hadoop and Spark show that application execution engines:
- Have a lot of innovation ahead of them.
- Are tightly entwined with data management, and with data movement as well.
- Hadoop is due for another refactoring, focused on both in-memory and persistent storage.
- There are many issues in storage that can affect data technologies as well, including but not limited to:
- Solid-state (flash or post-flash) vs. spinning disk.
- Networked vs. direct-attached.
- Virtualized vs. identifiable-physical.
- Graph analytics and data management are still confused.
There is much confusion about migration, by which I mean applications or investment being moved from one “platform” technology — hardware, operating system, DBMS, Hadoop, appliance, cluster, cloud, etc. — to another. Let’s sort some of that out. For starters:
- There are several fundamentally different kinds of “migration”.
- You can re-host an existing application.
- You can replace an existing application with another one that does similar (and hopefully also new) things. This new application may be on a different platform than the old one.
- You can build or buy a wholly new application.
- There’s also the inbetween case in which you extend an old application with significant new capabilities — which may not be well-suited for the existing platform.
- Motives for migration generally fall into a few buckets. The main ones are:
- You want to use a new app, and it only runs on certain platforms.
- The new platform may be cheaper to buy, rent or lease.
- The new platform may have lower operating costs in other ways, such as administration.
- Your employees may like the new platform’s “cool” aspect. (If the employee is sufficiently high-ranking, substitute “strategic” for “cool”.)
- Different apps may be much easier or harder to re-host. At two extremes:
- It can be forbiddingly difficult to re-host an OLTP (OnLine Transaction Processing) app that is heavily tuned, tightly integrated with your other apps, and built using your DBMS vendor’s proprietary stored-procedure language.
- It might be trivial to migrate a few long-running SQL queries to a new engine, and pretty easy to handle the data connectivity part of the move as well.
- Certain organizations, usually packaged software companies, design portability into their products from the get-go, with at least partial success.
Most IT innovation these days is focused on machine-generated data (sometimes just called “machine data”), rather than human-generated. So as I find myself in the mood for another survey post, I can’t think of any better idea for a unifying theme.
1. There are many kinds of machine-generated data. Important categories include:
- Web, network and other IT logs.
- Game and mobile app event data.
- CDRs (telecom Call Detail Records).
- “Phone-home” data from large numbers of identical electronic products (for example set-top boxes).
- Sensor network output (for example from a pipeline or other utility network).
- Vehicle telemetry.
- Health care data, in hospitals.
- Digital health data from consumer devices.
- Images from public-safety camera networks.
- Stock tickers (if you regard them as being machine-generated, which I do).
That’s far from a complete list, but if you think about those categories you’ll probably capture most of the issues surrounding other kinds of machine-generated data as well.
2. Technology for better information and analysis is also technology for privacy intrusion. Public awareness of privacy issues is focused in a few areas, mainly: Read more
A conversation I have too often with vendors goes something like:
- “That confidential thing you told me is interesting, and wouldn’t harm you if revealed; probably quite the contrary.”
- “Well, I guess we could let you mention a small subset of it.”
- “I’m sorry, that’s not enough to make for an interesting post.”
That was the genesis of some tidbits I recently dropped about WibiData and predictive modeling, especially but not only in the area of experimentation. However, Wibi just reversed course and said it would be OK for me to tell more or less the full story, as long as I note that we’re talking about something that’s still in beta test, with all the limitations (to the product and my information alike) that beta implies.
As you may recall:
- WibiData started out with a rich technology stack …
- … but decided to cast itself as an application company …
- … whose first vertical market is retailing,
With that as background, WibiData’s approach to predictive modeling as of its next release will go something like this: Read more
1. A couple years ago I wrote skeptically about integrating predictive modeling and business intelligence. I’m less skeptical now.
- The predictive experimentation I wrote about over Thanksgiving calls naturally for some BI/dashboarding to monitor how it’s going.
- If you think about Nutonian’s pitch, it can be approximated as “Root-cause analysis so easy a business analyst can do it.” That could be interesting to jump to after BI has turned up anomalies. And it should be pretty easy to whip up a UI for choosing a data set and objective function to model on, since those are both things that the BI tool would know how to get to anyway.
I’ve also heard a couple of ideas about how predictive modeling can support BI. One is via my client Omer Trajman, whose startup ScalingData is still semi-stealthy, but says they’re “working at the intersection of big data and IT operations”. The idea goes something like this:
- Suppose we have lots of logs about lots of things.* Machine learning can help:
- Notice what’s an anomaly.
- Group* together things that seem to be experiencing similar anomalies.
- That can inform a BI-plus interface for a human to figure out what is happening.
Makes sense to me.
* The word “cluster” could have been used here in a couple of different ways, so I decided to avoid it altogether.
Finally, I’m hearing a variety of “smart ETL/data preparation” and “we recommend what columns you should join” stories. I don’t know how much machine learning there’s been in those to date, but it’s usually at least on the roadmap to make the systems (yet) smarter in the future. The end benefit is usually to facilitate BI.
2. Discussion of graph DBMS can get confusing. For example: Read more
|Categories: Business intelligence, Greenplum, Hadoop, Hortonworks, Log analysis, Neo Technology and Neo4j, Nutonian, Predictive modeling and advanced analytics, RDF and graphs, WibiData||3 Comments|
MapR put out a press release aggregating some customer information; unfortunately, the release is a monument to vagueness. Let me start by saying:
- I don’t know for sure, but I’m guessing Derrick Harris was incorrect in suspecting that this release was a reaction to my recent post about Hortonworks’ numbers. For one thing, press releases usually don’t happen that quickly.
- And as should be obvious from the previous point — notwithstanding that MapR is a client, I had no direct involvement in this release.
- In general, I advise clients and other vendors to put out the kind of aggregate of customer success stories found in this release. However, I would like to see more substance than MapR offered.
Anyhow, the key statement in the MapR release is:
… the number of companies that have a paid subscription for MapR now exceeds 700.
Unfortunately, that includes OEM customers as well as direct ones; I imagine MapR’s direct customer count is much lower.
In one gesture to numerical conservatism, MapR did indicate by email that it counts by overall customer organization, not by department/cluster/contract (i.e., not the way Hortonworks does). Read more
|Categories: Hadoop, Health care, MapR, Market share and customer counts, Pricing, Telecommunications||2 Comments|
I believe in all of the following trends:
- Hadoop is a Big Deal, and here to stay.
- Spark, for most practical purposes, is becoming a big part of Hadoop.
- Most servers will be operated away from user premises, whether via SaaS (Software as a Service), co-location, or “true” cloud computing.
Trickier is the meme that Hadoop is “the new OS”. My thoughts on that start:
- People would like this to be true, although in most cases only as one of several cluster computing platforms.
- Hadoop, when viewed as an operating system, is extremely primitive.
- Even so, the greatest awkwardness I’m seeing when different software shares a Hadoop cluster isn’t actually in scheduling, but rather in data interchange.
There is also a minor issue that if you distribute your Hadoop work among extra nodes you might have to pay a bit more to your Hadoop distro support vendor. Fortunately, the software industry routinely solves more difficult pricing problems than that.
|Categories: Cloud computing, Databricks, Spark and BDAS, Hadoop, MapReduce, MemSQL, Software as a Service (SaaS)||14 Comments|